vannevar

vannevar
 /van'@.var/, n.

   A bogus technological prediction or a foredoomed engineering concept,
   esp. one that fails by implicitly assuming that technologies develop
   linearly, incrementally, and in isolation from one another when in
   fact the learning curve tends to be highly nonlinear, revolutions are
   common, and competition is the rule. The prototype was Vannevar Bush's
   prediction of `electronic brains' the size of the Empire State
   Building with a Niagara-Falls-equivalent cooling system for their
   tubes and relays, a prediction made at a time when the semiconductor
   effect had already been demonstrated. Other famous vannevars have
   included magnetic-bubble memory, LISP machines, {videotex}, and a
   paper from the late 1970s that computed a purported ultimate limit on
   areal density for ICs that was in fact less than the routine densities
   of 5 years later.
    

vannevar

   <jargon> /van'*-var/ A bogus technological prediction or a
   foredoomed engineering concept, especially one that fails by
   implicitly assuming that technologies develop linearly,
   incrementally, and in isolation from one another when in fact
   the learning curve tends to be highly nonlinear, revolutions
   are common, and competition is the rule.  The prototype was
   Vannevar Bush's prediction of "electronic brains" the size of
   the Empire State Building with a Niagara-Falls-equivalent
   cooling system for their tubes and relays, a prediction made
   at a time when the semiconductor effect had already been
   demonstrated.  Other famous vannevars have included
   {magnetic-bubble memory}, {LISP machines}, {videotex}, and a
   paper from the late 1970s that computed a purported ultimate
   limit on areal density for {integrated circuits} that was in
   fact less than the routine densities of 5 years later.

   [{Jargon File}]

   (2000-02-29)